Quick Answer: How Much CO2 Does Avoiding Plastic Save?
CO2e avoided (metric tonnes) = Items a week × Ounces an item ÷ 16 × 52 ÷ 2,000 × Source-reduction factor. The factors come from the US EPA's Waste Reduction Model, WARM Version 16 (December 2023): not making a short ton of PET avoids 2.17 metric tonnes of CO2e, and not making a short ton of HDPE avoids 1.42.
Those are roughly double what WARM credits for recycling the same resins (1.04 for PET and 0.76 for HDPE) because avoiding an item skips resin production and manufacturing, while recycling only displaces part of it.
Seven 16.9 oz water bottles a week at 0.33 oz each: 7.5 lb of PET a year, 0.0038 short tons, and 0.008 tonnes of CO2e avoided, about 8 kilograms. Recycling the same bottles instead would credit about half that.
The honest scale: individual plastic habits are small next to driving or home heating, because plastic is light. Their larger benefits are often less waste and less litter, which this number doesn't measure.