There are three common ways to estimate a due date by hand. All three should agree with each other when the inputs are truly 14 days apart — small mismatches usually mean the LMP and conception date weren't quite 14 days apart to begin with.
Method 1: From LMP (most common). Formula: Due Date = LMP + 280 days.
Step 1 — Identify your LMP: LMP = January 1, 2025. Step 2 — Add 280 days: January 1 + 280 days = October 8, 2025. Answer: your baby's due date is October 8, 2025.
Method 2: From conception date. Formula: Due Date = Conception Date + 266 days.
Step 1 — Identify your conception date: Conception Date = January 15, 2025 (14 days after an LMP of January 1). Step 2 — Add 266 days: January 15 + 266 days = October 8, 2025. Answer: your baby's due date is October 8, 2025, matching Method 1 exactly, because January 15 is a full 14 days after the January 1 LMP.
Method 3: Naegele's Rule (quick manual estimate). Formula: Due Date = (LMP − 3 months + 7 days), adding 1 year back whenever subtracting 3 months moves you into the previous year.
Step 1 — Identify your LMP: LMP = January 1, 2025. Step 2 — Subtract 3 months: January 1 → October 1, 2024. Step 3 — Add 7 days: October 1 + 7 days = October 8, 2024. Step 4 — Because step 2 crossed into the previous year, add 1 year back: October 8, 2024 + 1 year = October 8, 2025. Answer: your baby's due date is October 8, 2025 — the same answer as Methods 1 and 2, confirming Naegele's Rule is just a hand-arithmetic shortcut for the same 280-day rule.
A note on Method 3: many quick explanations of Naegele's Rule leave out step 4 (the "+1 year" correction), which silently produces a due date a full year too early whenever the LMP falls in the first three months of the year. If you calculate by hand and land in the wrong year, that missing step is almost always why — see Common Due Date Mistakes below.